Will the MLB Lockout Dampen Advertiser Enthusiasm?

Big news: Baseball is back after a 98-day lockout, the ninth work stoppage for Major League Baseball (MLB) since 1972.

Big question #1: Why was there a lockout?

Quick answer: The collective bargaining agreement from 2017 expired, and owners/players were at an impasse.

Big question #2: What was the primary disagreement between owners and players?

Quick answer: Players argue team revenue/profit is growing faster than salaries.

Player share of revenue by collective bargaining agreement:
1) 2007-11 – 51.6%
2) 2012-16 – 50.2%
3) 2017-21 – 49.3%

MLB total payroll (YoY growth) according to Forbes:
1) 2012 – $3.2B
2) 2013 – $3.8B (↑ 20%)
3) 2014 – $3.6B (↓ 4%)
4) 2015 – $3.9B (↑ 7%)
5) 2026 – $4.1B (↑ 5%)
6) 2017 – $4.2B (↑ 4%)
7) 2018 – $4.6B (↑ 7%)
8) 2019 – $4.2B (↓ 7%)
9) 2020 – $1.8B (↓ 59%)
10) 2021 – $4.1B (↑ 132%)

Interesting: If adjusted for inflation, the Oakland A’s payroll has declined 30% (↓ $19M) over the past 20 seasons, while franchise value has grown 349% (↑ $869M).

Oakland A’s payroll in 2022 dollars (% change):
1) 2002 – $63M
2) 2022 – $44M (↓ 30%)

Oakland A’s franchise value in 2022 dollars (% change):
1) 2002 – $249M
2) 2022 – $1.2B (↑ 349%)

MLB franchise value (YoY growth) according to Forbes:
1) 2012 – $607M
2) 2013 – $743M (↑ 22%)
3) 2014 – $811M (↑ 9%)
4) 2015 – $1.20B (↑ 48%)
5) 2026 – $1.29B (↑ 7%)
6) 2017 – $1.54B (↑ 19%)
7) 2018 – $1.65B (↑ 7%)
8) 2019 – $1.78B (↑ 8%)
9) 2020 – $1.85B (↑ 4%)
10) 2021 – $1.90B (↑ 3%)
11) 2022 – $2.07B (↑ 9%)

Top five MLB franchises by value (YoY growth):
1) New York Yankees – $6.0B (↑ 14%)
2) Los Angeles Dodgers – $4.1B (↑ 14%)
3) Boston Red Sox – $3.9B (↑ 13%)
4) Chicago Cubs – $3.8B (↑ 13%)
5) San Francisco Giants – $3.5B (↑ 10%)

% increase between 2012-21:
1) Total payroll – ↑ 29%
2) Average franchise value – ↑ 241%

Big question #3: Did the lockout dampen national advertiser appetite for Major League Baseball?

Quick answer: No. Each of the three national networks is close to selling out for the entire season.

Quote from Mark Evans – EVP of Ad Sales @ Fox Sports:“It’s hard to aggregate scale quickly in today’s bifurcated environment. If you’re trying to move product, launch a movie, get awareness for a new brand, live sports is the only place in town to do it quickly. It’s the only place to aggregate millions of Americans.”

Outstanding questions:
1) How will new TV rights deals (more $$$) play into the relationship between players and owners?
2) What happens with local (in-market) streaming rights?  Will MLB go DTC with MLB.tv or allow local teams to strike deals (Bally Sports, Amazon, etc.)?

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