Road to the White House: Trump vs. Harris I

Setting the table: This is the 10th part of our Road to the White House series.
1) 11 Billion Reasons to Care About Political Video Ads
2) The Battle for Iowa (Part 1)
3) The Battle for Iowa (Part 2)
4) The Battle For New Hampshire
5) Is Biden Reaching Enough Swing Voters?
6) Biden vs. Trump I
7) The GOP Convention
8) The Race to Define Kamala Harris
9) The DNC Convention
10) Trump vs. Harris I

Six big questions re: the second presidential debate of 2024:
1) When is the debate?
2) How many people watched the first debate?
3) Which presidential debate had the highest viewership?
4) Which age groups tune in most?
5) Who is currently ahead in the polls?
6) Do debates matter?

Big question #1: When is the debate?

Quick answer: Tonight at 9:00 pm EST

Big question #2: How many people watched the first debate?

Quick answer: 51.3M total viewers

Reach % for first 2024 presidential debate according to Cross Screen Media:
1) Republicans – 24%
2) Democrats – 22%
3) 18+ – 20%
4) Swing – 19%

Why this matters: 81% of swing voters did not tune into a single minute of debate #1.

Quote from Philip Bump – National Columnist @ The Washington Post:

“Debate viewership is driven by highly engaged people tuning in. So are elections, but they’re often decided by people who aren’t highly engaged, the sorts of people who somehow didn’t make it 800 words into an article about the dynamics of the election. They are also people who are definitionally harder to contact and inform — one reason that polling in recent years has at times been off the mark, including in underestimating the effects of the abortion-access question.”

Total viewers by network for Biden/Trump I in 2024 (% of total):
1) CNN – 9.5M (19%)
2) Fox News – 9.3M (18%)
3) ABC – 9.2M (18%)
4) NBC – 5.4M (11%)
5) Other – 5.1M (10%)
6) CBS – 5.0M (10%)
7) MSNBC – 4.1M (8%)
8) Fox – 3.7M (7%)

Big question #3: Which presidential debate had the highest viewership?

Presidential debates with the highest viewership, according to Nielsen:
1) Clinton/Trump (09/26/2016) – 84M
2) Carter/Reagan (10/28/1980) – 81M
3) Trump/Biden (09/29/2020) – 73M
4) Clinton/Trump (10/20/2016) – 72M
5) Clinton/Bush/Perot (10/15/1992) – 70M

Big question #4: Which age groups tune in most?

Rating for Biden/Trump I in June, according to Nielsen:
1) 55+ – 33.7
2) 35-54 – 13.6
3) 18-34 – 6.4

Rating change for Trump/Biden I in 2020 vs. 2024, according to Nielsen:
1) 55+ – 42.7 → 33.7 (↓ 21%)
2) 35-54 – 25.5 → 13.6 (↓ 47%)
3) 18-34 – 12.0 → 6.4 (↓ 47%)

Big question #5: Who is currently ahead in the polls?

Quick answer: Vice President Harris is leading at the national level.  The electoral college is as close as ever,  and that is all that matters.

Big question #6: Do debates matter?

National polling average pre-debate (post-debate), according to MUFG:
1) 2004 – Bush +5.4 (Bush +2.4)
2) 2008 – Obama +3.3 (Obama +6.0)
3) 2012 – Obama +4.0 (Romney +1.0)
4) 2016 – Clinton +2.5 (Clinton +4.2)
5) 2020 – Biden +7.7 (Biden +9.1)
6) 2024 – Trump +2.0 (Trump +3.2)

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