Retailers Will Get Full Stockings This Holiday Season

Total U.S. holiday spend (YoY growth) according to eMarketer:
1) 2015 – $860B (↑ 2%)
2) 2016 – $896B (↑ 4%)
3) 2017 – $939B (↑ 5%)
4) 2018 – $953B (↑ 2%)
5) 2019 – $991B (↑ 4%)
6) 2020 – $1,052B (↑ 6%)
7) 2021P – $1,147B (↑ 9%)

Flashback: Record Online Spend Means Happy Holidays For E-tailers

ECommerce share of U.S. holiday spend:
1) 2015 – 10%
2) 2016 – 10%
3) 2017 – 12%
4) 2018 – 11%
5) 2019 – 14%
6) 2020 – 18%
7) 2021P – 18%

Why this matters: Ecommerce will grow its share of holiday sales even as the share of consumers “comfortable at shopping malls” grew 94% YoY.

Share of consumers comfortable at shopping malls according to Morning Consult:
1) Nov-20 – 33%
2) Nov-21 – 64%

Average holiday spend per person (YoY growth) according to the National Retail Federation:
1) 2009 – $783     
2) 2010 – $831 (↑ 6%)
3) 2011 – $878 (↑ 6%)
4) 2012 – $893 (↑ 2%)
5) 2013 – $902 (↑ 1%)
6) 2014 – $929 (↑ 3%)
7) 2015 – $953 (↑ 3%)
8) 2016 – $936 (↓ 2%)
9) 2017 – $967 (↑ 3%)
10) 2018 – $1,007 (↑ 4%)
11) 2019 – $1,048 (↑ 4%)
12) 2020 – $997 (↓ 5%)
13) 2021P – $998 (↑ 0%)

Breakdown of average holiday spend (% of total):
1) Gifts – $648 (65%)
2) Cards/Decorations – $231 (23%)
3) Travel/Other – $119 (12%)

Big question #1: When do people start holiday shopping?

Quick answer: A record high of 61% of consumers had already begun by early November.

Big question #2: When do people finish holiday shopping?

Quick answer: Mr. Screens tips his hat to the 25% of you still fighting the good fight!

Big question #3: When is it acceptable to put up a Christmas tree?  Asking for a friend.

When it is acceptable to put up a Christmas tree according to Axios:
1) November after Thanksgiving – 55%
2) November before Thanksgiving – 20%
3) Early December – 17%
4) Never too early – 6%
5) After December 20th – 2%

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