Mulan vs. Tenet. Home Rental vs. Box Office. And The Winner Is?

Author

Michael Beach
October 01, 2020

Labor Day movie ticket revenue (YoY change) according to The Numbers:
1) 2019 – $137.3M
2) 2020 – $27.0M (↓ 80%)

Labor Day top earner (YoY change):
1) It: Chapter Two – $91.1M
2) Tenent – $20.2M (↓ 78%)

Quick math on Tenet opening:
1) Indoor movie theaters in US – 5,500
2) Indoor movie theaters open w/ Tenent – 2,930
3) % of movie theaters w/ Tenent – 53%
4) Screens/theater – 7.4
5) Seats/screen – 150 – 750 (≈ 615)
6) Screens w/ Tenant – 21,636
7) Seats w/ Tenant – 13.3M
8) Labor Day revenue – $20.2M
9) Average tick cost – $9.15
10) Tickets sold – 2.2M
11) Tickets sold/seat – 0.2
12) Ticket revenue/screen – $934
13) Ticket revenue/theater – $6,894

Why this matters: Theaters are open, but 82% of adults are not comfortable going to movies.

Share of adults comfortable going to movies according to Morning Consult:
1) April (low) – 12%
2) June (high) – 23%
3) September – 18%

U.S. movie ticket revenue (YoY growth) according to Box Office Mojo:
1) 2010 – $10.6B
2) 2011 – $10.2B  (↓ 4%)
3) 2012 – $10.8B  (↑ 7%)
4) 2013 – $10.9B  (↑ 1%)
5) 2014 – $10.4B  (↓ 5%)
6) 2015 – $11.1B  (↑ 7%)
7) 2016 – $11.4B  (↑ 2%)
8) 2017 – $11.1B  (↓ 3%)
9) 2018 – $11.9B  (↑ 7%)
10) 2019 – $11.3B  (↓ 5%)
11) 2020P – $5.5B (↓ 51%)
12) 2021P – $9.7B (↑ 76%)

Big question: If consumers aren’t ready to return to theaters, then shouldn’t home rentals be taking off?

Quick answer: Unclear.

Home rental estimates in the US for Mulan according to Entertainment Strategy Guy:
1) # of purchases – 3M
2) $/purchase – $30
3) Total revenue – $90M

Interesting: ANTENNA shows the drop in interest following a home rental release.

What happens next: Expect studios to delay releases further.

Quote from Paul Dergarabedian – Senior Media Analyst @ Comscore:
“It’s natural that we’re going to see release date changes for many movies.  It’s a very unpredictable marketplace.”

Reply

or to participate.