How TV Tuned In More Ad Dollars: Direct Response and Digital Doubts

Mo money: The big five broadcast networks grew their upfront commitments by 5%+ YoY.

Upfront ad spend by year for big five broadcast networks (YoY growth) according to Variety:
1) 2010-11 – $8.1B
2) 2011-12 – $8.8B (↑ 9%)
3) 2012-13 – $8.8B (↑ 0%)
4) 2013-14 – $8.6B (↓ 2%)
5) 2014-15 – $8.2B (↓ 5%)
6) 2015-16 – $8.0B (↓ 2%)
7) 2016-17 – $8.4B (↑ 5%)
8) 2017-18 – $8.8B (↑ 4%)
9) 2018-19 – $9.1B (↑ 4%)
10) 2019-20 – $9.6B (↑ 5%)

Upfront commitment by network (YoY growth):
1) NBC – $3.2B (↑ 8%)
2) CBS – $2.4B (↑ 5%)
3) ABC – $2.0B (↑ 22%)
4) Fox – $1.6B (↑ 8%)
5) The CW – $593M (↑ 5%)

FYI: C3 ratings were down 11% last year…

CPM change by network:
1) CBS – ↑ 14%
2) ABC – ↑ 14%
3) The CW – ↑ 14%
4) NBC – ↑ 13%
5) Fox – ↑ 12%

Estimate for CPM change (May 2019) according to Mediapost:
1) Networks – ↑ 15% – 20%
2) Media Buyers – ↑ 12% – 13%

The bottom line for upfront changes YoY:
1) Total spend – ↑ 5%
2) Ratings – ↓ 11%
3) AVG CPM $ – ↑ 12%+

Flashback: As TV Industry’s $20 Billion Week Starts, Signs That Streaming Isn’t King Yet

Upfront ad spend by year (% growth YoY) according to eMarketer:
1) 2008-09 – $16.8B (↑ 1%)
2) 2009-10 – $14.7B (↓ 13%)
3) 2010-11 – $16.6B (↑ 13%)
4) 2011-12 – $17.9B (↑ 8%)
5) 2012-13 – $18.7B (↑ 4%)
6) 2013-14 – $19.2B (↑ 3%)
7) 2014-15 – $18.4B (↓ 4%)
8) 2015-16 – $17.8B (↓ 3%)
9) 2016-17 – $18.6B (↑ 5%)
10) 2017-18 – $19.7B (↑ 6%)
11) 2018-19 – $20.8B (↑ 5%)
12) 2019-20 – $21.3B (↑ 2%)
13) 2020-21 – $21.6B (↑ 2%)

More #1: Traditional TV Ad Sales Aren’t Bad Even Amid Cord-Cutting

More #2: TV’s Upfront Market May Be More Complex Than Networks Expected

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