Even the NFL Can’t Block Streaming

4 big questions re: how we watch video:
1) Did the arrival of football season decrease streaming’s share of total TV?2) Which streaming services account for the highest share of total TV?
3) What share of households use pay-TV as their default source for TV?4) How many total TV households are in the United States?

Big question #1: Did the arrival of football season decrease streaming’s share of total TV?

Quick answer: No.  In September, streaming grew at its fastest rate since Nielsen launched the Gauge in May 2021.

Share of total TV time according to Nielsen:
1) Streaming – 37%
2) Cable – 34%
3) Broadcast – 24%
4) Other – 5%

Why this matters: Linear TV experienced a boost from football’s return, but streaming still gained share.

Streaming share of total TV time (YoY growth):
1) 2019-Q4 – 19%
2) 2022-Sep – 37% (↑ 94%)

YoY change in total TV time:
1) Streaming – ↑ 33%
2) Broadcast – ↓ 8%
3) Cable – ↓ 10%

YoY growth rate for streaming:
1) May – ↑ 23%
2) June – ↑ 25%
3) July – ↑ 24%
4) August – ↑ 25%
5) September – ↑ 33%

Big question #2: Which streaming services account for the highest share of total TV?

Share of total TV time (streaming only):
1) YouTube – 8%
2) Netflix – 7%
3) Hulu – 4%
4) Amazon Prime – 3%
5) Disney+ – 2%
6) HBO Max – 1%
7) PlutoTV – 1%
8) Other – 11%

YoY growth rate for streaming:
1) Disney+ – ↑ 90%
2) Amazon Prime – ↑ 45%
3) YouTube – ↑ 33%
4) Hulu – ↑ 27%
5) Netflix – ↑ 22%

Big question #3: What share of households use pay-TV as their default source for TV?

Share of consumers using pay-TV as their default source for watching TV according to Hub Entertainment Research:
1) 2019 – 39%
2) 2020 – 36%
3) 2021 – 35%
4) 2022 – 32%

Why this matters: As cord-cutting increases, pay-TV will lose share of total TV time.

Big question #4: How many total TV households are in the United States?

Total TV households (% change) according to Nielsen:
1) 2002-03 – 106.7M
2) 2012-13 – 114.2M (↑ 7%)
3) 2022-23 – 123.8M (↑ 8%) 

Bottom line: We discussed this topic at the recent 4As Stratfest conference.  Since 2012, both time spent with video and new TV household creation has been ≈ 1% per year.  Any share of total TV time moving to streaming comes directly from time spent with linear TV.  This is zero-sum.   

Quick math for change in attention available for the average show since 2012:
1) Time spent w/ video – ↑ 7%
2) # of original shows – ↑ 166%
3) TV households – ↑ 8%
4) Average time/show – ↓ 60%

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