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Does More Content Actually Mean Less Churn?
Michael Beach
June 25, 2021
Estimated content spend according to Wells Fargo:
1) Disney – $31B
2) NBCUniversal – $18B
3) Netflix – $17B
4) WarnerMedia – $17B
5) ViacomCBS – $15B
6) Amazon – $9B
7) Discovery – $7B
8) Apple – $6B
9) Sky – $6B
10) Lionsgate – $2B
Big question #1: Why are streaming services spending so much on content?
Quick answer: The goal is to add subscribers and reduce churn.
Big question #2: Why is reducing churn so important?
Quick answer: Streaming services are paying $50+ to get new customers (CAC) and don’t break even for at least 5-10 months.
Monthly churn rate according to Antenna:
1) Apple TV+ – 16%
2) Peacock – 10%
3) Showtime – 9%
4) Starz – 8%
5) HBO Max – 7%
6) Paramount+ – 6%
7) Hulu – 5%
8) Disney+ – 4%
9) Netflix – 3%
Quick math for Apple TV+ churn:
1) Monthly churn – 15.6%
2) Average subscription length – 6 months
3) Monthly subscription fee – $5
4) Lifetime value (LTV) – $32
5) Apple can’t spend more than $32 to acquire customers (CAC)
Quick math for Netflix churn:
1) Monthly churn – 2.5%
2) Average subscription length – 40 months
3) Monthly subscription fee – $14
4) Lifetime value (LTV) – $570
5) Netflix can’t spend more than $570 to acquire customers (CAC)
Why this matters: Netflix currently generates 18X the revenue/user compared to Apple leading to more revenue and the following cycle:
More revenue → more content → more customers → lower churn → more revenue
Big question #3: Why do people churn?
Quick answer: 37% of consumers sign up to watch a specific piece of content, and then ≈ 60% cancel after watching that piece of content.
Top 5 events for net new streaming subscriptions in 2020 according to Antenna:
1) WW84 (HBO Max)
2) Hamilton (Disney+)
3) Black Friday promo (Hulu)
4) Greyhound (Apple TV+)
5) EPL + US Open (Peacock)
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