Disney+ Earnings Are an Investor’s Fairytale

Author

Michael Beach
February 24, 2022

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Disney+ subscribers (YoY growth):
1) 2019 – 28.6M
2) 2020 – 94.9M (↑ 232%)
3) 2021 – 129.8M (↑ 37%)

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Disney streaming subscribers by platform (% of total):
1) Disney+ – 129.8M (66%)
2) Hulu – 45.3M (23%)
3) ESPN+ – 21.3M (11%)
4) Total – 196.4M

Total Disney streaming subscribers (YoY growth):
1) 2020 – 146.4M
2) 2021 – 196.4M (↑ 34%)

Monthly ARPU for Disney+ (YoY growth):
1) 2019-Q4 – $5.56
2) 2020-Q4 – $4.03 (↓ 28%)
3) 2021-Q4 – $4.41 (↑ 9%)

Monthly ARPU for Hulu (SVOD only)(YoY growth):
1) 2020-Q4 – $13.51
2) 2021-Q4 – $12.96 (↓ 4%)

Monthly ARPU for Hulu (Live TV + SVOD)(YoY growth):
1) 2020-Q4 – $75.11
2) 2021-Q4 – $87.01 (↑ 16%)

Monthly ARPU for ESPN+ (YoY growth):
1) 2020-Q4 – $4.48
2) 2021-Q4 – $5.16 (↑ 15%)

Big question #1: What events drove new subscribers forDisney+?

Quick answer: Hamilton drove the most subscriber additions to date.

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Big question #2: What share of Disney+ signups are international?

Share of Disney+ subscribers outside U.S./Canada:
1) 2020 – 62%
2) 2021 – 67%

Surprising: More than half of Disney+ subscribers don’t have kids.

Big question #3: Does Disney+ have enough content?

Share of opinion on the volume of Disney+ content according to Whip Media:
1) Enough – 53%
2) Undecided – 23%
3) Not enough – 24%

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Big question #4: How much is Disney spending on content?

Estimated U.S. content spend for Disney (YoY growth) according to Wells Fargo:
1) 2019 – $21.6B
2) 2020 – $28.9B (↑ 34%)
3) 2021 – $30.5B (↑ 6%)
4) 2022P – $32.9B (↑ 8%)
5) 2023P – $35.2B (↑ 7%)
6) 2024P – $37.8B (↑ 7%)
7) 2025P – $40.5B (↑ 7%)

Disney content plan for 2022:
1) 50 movies for theatrical/streaming
2) 5 movies for TV
3) 60 unscripted series
4) 30 comedy series
5) 24 drama series
6) 15 documentary series
7) 10 animated series

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