Cutting the Cord: Pay-TV’s Subscriber Base Plummets by 1.7 Million in Q2

Seven big questions re: cord-cutting:
1) How many homes subscribe to a pay-TV bundle?
2) What share of pay-TV subscriptions is streaming?
3) What does a streaming pay-TV subscriber look like?
4) Are streaming pay-TV services replacing all the subscribers leaving traditional pay-TV?
5) What share of households subscribes to a traditional and streaming pay-TV service?
6) Why would someone subscribe to both?
7) Is time spent with cable declining at the same rate as subscribers?

Big question #1: How many homes subscribe to a pay-TV bundle?

Quick answer: 73M

YoY change in pay-TV subscribers:
1) Traditional pay-TV – ↓ 6.5M
2) Streaming pay-TV – ↑ 1.1M
3) Total pay-TV – ↓ 5.4M

Total pay-TV subscriptions (YoY growth):
1) 2019-Q2 – 91.0M
2) 2020-Q2 – 85.9M (↓ 6%)
3) 2021-Q2 – 82.5M (↓ 5%)
4) 2022-Q2 – 78.1M (↓ 5%)
5) 2023-Q2 – 72.7M (↓ 7%)

Big question #2: What share of pay-TV subscriptions is streaming?

Quick answer: 19%

Streaming pay-TV subscriptions (YoY growth):
1) 2019-Q2 – 8.2M
2) 2020-Q2 – 9.9M (↑ 20%)
3) 2021-Q2 – 11.7M (↑ 18%)
4) 2022-Q2 – 13.0M (↑ 17%)
5) 2023-Q2 – 14.2M (↑ 9%)

Big question #3: What does a streaming pay-TV subscriber look like?

Quick answer: Streaming pay-TV subscribers look the same as traditional pay-TV subscribers, except they are slightly younger.

Big question #4: Are streaming pay-TV services replacing all the subscribers leaving traditional pay-TV?

Quick answer: No.  Since 2019, streaming pay-TV has only gained 24% of the subscriptions lost by traditional pay-TV.

Big question #5: What share of households subscribes to a traditional and streaming pay-TV service?

Quick answer: 5%

Why this matters: If accurate, roughly 6M pay-TV subscriptions would be duplicates.

Big question #6: Why would someone subscribe to both?

Reasons for subscribing to both streaming and traditional pay-TV, according to Kagan:
1) Better on-demand viewing – 27%
2) Multiple HH members can watch at the same time – 27%
3) Trying out something new – 25%
4) Watching on the go – 23%
5) Don’t want to connect multiple TVs to cable – 20%

Big question #7: Is time spent with cable declining at the same rate as subscribers?

Quick answer: No. Time spent is declining 2X as fast as subscribers.

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