11 Billion Reasons to Care About Political Video Ads

Eight big questions re: political video advertising:
1) How large is the political video ad market in the 2024 cycle?
2) How does 2024 compare to past election cycles?
3) How is the spending pace compared to past cycles?
4) Why is political video advertising growing so fast?
5) How do linear and digital video screen types differ?
6) Which screen types are growing the fastest?
7) What share of video ad spending is on TV?
8) Who will win the battle for CTV dollars?

Big question #1: How large is the political video ad market in the 2024 cycle?

Quick answer: $11B

Presidential cycle political video ad spending (% growth) according to AdImpact/Cross Screen Media:
1) 2016 – $2.5B
2) 2020 – $9.5B (↑ 283%)
3) 2024 – $11.3B (↑ 19%)

Big question #2: How does 2024 compare to past election cycles?

Key details for political video ad spending:
1) 2024 vs. 2020 – ↑ $1.8B (↑ 19%)
2) 2024 vs. 2022 – ↑ $1.5B (↑ 16%)
3) ≈ 6% of the entire U.S. video ad market in 2024
4) ≈ 8% of all U.S. video ad growth (from 2022)

Quote from Brian Wieser – Principal @ Madison and Wall:

“Television is kind of weak in general, so with political (advertising) growing it becomes a bigger percentage of their total every cycle.”

Big question #3: How is the spending pace compared to past cycles?

TV ad spending (% growth) as of November 21st, according to AdImpact:
1) 2020 – $784M
2) 2024 – $1.3B (↑ 67%)

Big question #4: Why is political video advertising growing so fast?

Quick answer: Money in politics grew 161% (↑ $10B) between the 2008 and 2020 presidential elections.  Media accounts for ≈ 60% of campaign spending, benefiting the most from increased spending overall.

Quote from Mark Penn – CEO @ Stagwell:“I used to joke that brands spent more money marketing hamburgers than politicians spent campaigning to run a nation – but that’s no longer the case. With the explosion of digital channels, political campaigns are at the forefront of targeting techniques and marketing innovation because they are always trying to outdo their competitors, and those tools are necessary in today’s lower-growth commercial world.”

Big question #5: How do linear and digital video screen types differ?

Share of political video ad spend by screen type:
1) Local broadcast TV – 45%
2) Connected TV (CTV) – 21%
3) Local cable TV – 18%
4) Mobile/desktop – 12%
5) Social video – 4%

Digital share (including CTV) of political video ad spend:
1) 2014 – 6%
2) 2016 – 12%
3) 2018 – 19%
4) 2020 – 27%
5) 2022 – 32%
6) 2024 – 37%

Big question #6: Which screen types are growing the fastest?

Growth rate by screen type:
1) Streaming TV (CTV) – ↑ 48%
2) Mobile/Desktop video – ↑ 17%
3) All political video advertising – ↑ 16%
4) Social video – ↑ 13%
5) Local Cable TV – ↑ 11%
6) Local Broadcast TV – ↑ 6%

Big question #7: What share of video ad spending is on TV?

TV share (including CTV) of political video ad spend:
1) 2014 – 94%
2) 2016 – 88%
3) 2018 – 81%
4) 2020 – 73%
5) 2022 – 84%
6) 2024 – 84%

Interesting: Social video and mobile/desktop gained share until 2020, when they peaked at 27%.  CTV has grown so fast that TV’s share of political video ad spend is back up to 84%.

Bottom line: The battle between linear TV and digital buyers over CTV is fierce.  Whoever controls the CTV budget controls the video ad budget into the future.

Big question #8: Who will win the battle for CTV dollars?

Quick answer: CTV ad dollars will go to the group that adopts cross-screen planning, activation, and measurement.

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